By Alabbas F Alsudani, The American University of Iraq – Baghdad

In the early 1990s, members of Yemen’s Houthi family, particularly Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, forged ties with Iran through visits to the nation. These visits enabled religious and ideological exchange, particularly by aligning with Iran’s revolutionary Shiite doctrine. This period signified the nascent stage of a relationship that developed between the Houthis and Iran. In the late 1990s, the Houthi movement, officially called Ansar Allah, emerged. It originated as a religious revivalist faction within Yemen’s Zaydi Shiite community, concentrating on local grievances and the promotion of Zaydi cultural and religious identity. During this stage of development, the movement operated independently with very little influence from external factors.

In the early 2000s, as the Houthi insurgency against the Yemeni government intensified, Iran purportedly commenced providing financial assistance, military training, and arms to enhance the group’s capabilities, eliciting international scrutiny, particularly regarding the magnitude of this support. The Iran-Houthi alliance fits within  Iran’s overarching “Axis of Resistance,” which aims to counter U.S. and Israeli dominance in the Middle East. By aligning with the Houthis, Iran amplifies its influence in the Arabian Peninsula, opposing adversaries such as Saudi Arabia, while the Houthis acquire resources and strategic support. In recent years, accusations regarding Iranian arms shipments and military assistance have intensified, with investigations by the United Nations and others examining Iran’s role in the conflict in Yemen. Although Tehran and the Houthis refute direct collaboration, increasing evidence indicates a strengthening alliance with considerable ramifications for regional stability.

Although Iran denies direct control over Yemen’s Houthi rebels, considerable evidence suggests extensive support, encompassing aid such as arms transfers and military training. The U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency stated that, since 2014, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF) has provided the Houthis with advanced weaponry and training, facilitating assaults on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Moreover, U.S. forces have intercepted consignments transporting Iranian military assistance to the Houthis, including drone components and missile parts. Notwithstanding these findings, the degree of Iran’s influence on Houthi operations continues to be a matter of global discussion.

The Yemen conflict within the Saudi-Iranian rivalry

The Saudi-Iranian rivalry has profoundly impacted the Yemeni conflict, as both countries support rival factions. Saudi Arabia heads a coalition backing Yemen’s internationally recognized government, whereas Iran is alleged to assist the Houthi rebels. This proxy conflict has intensified Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, leaving millions on the brink of starvation amidst continuing hostilities. The conflict has undermined regional stability, impacting adjacent nations and global shipping lanes.

Houthi and Iran: roots, evolution, and mechanisms of the relationship

Since 2010, the relationship between Yemen’s Houthi movement and Iran has transformed from diplomatic interactions to a strategic alliance marked by military and ideological support. Initially, Iran’s participation was limited, offering financial support and ideological counsel based on a common Shiite affiliation. As the conflict in Yemen escalated, especially following the Houthis’ capture of Sanaa in 2014, IRGC backing grew stronger, including the provision of weaponry, military training, and logistical support. This alliance has empowered the Houthis to confront both the Yemeni government and Saudi-led coalition forces, signifying a crucial aspect of the overarching Saudi-Iranian rivalry. Although Iran denies direct control, the relationship remains a vital element of Iran’s regional influence.

Iranian-produced ballistic missiles and drones, including the Burkan and Qasef series, have been employed by the Houthis to resist the Saudi and Emirati military intervention. Furthermore, Iran has purportedly dispatched its consignments of weaponry and military apparatus via maritime channels, with U.S. Navy interceptions uncovering Iranian arms destined for Houthi-controlled regions. These actions underscore Iran’s involvement in augmenting the Houthis’ military capabilities and perpetuating their insurgency against the Yemeni government and the Saudi-led coalition.

Houthi and Saudi: roots, evolution, and mechanisms of the relationship

The relationship between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is deeply rooted in the regional dynamics of the Middle East, marked by religious and political tensions. The Houthis have historically been marginalized by the Yemeni government, which has close ties with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s concern over Iran’s growing influence in Yemen, primarily through its support of the Houthis, led to heightened tensions. In 2014, when the Houthis took control of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, Saudi Arabia viewed their rise as part of Iran’s broader regional ambitions, prompting the launch of a military intervention in 2015 to restore the Yemeni government. The conflict escalated into a proxy war, with Saudi Arabia backing the Yemeni government and Iran allegedly supporting the Houthis. Mechanisms of Saudi-Houthi relations have been primarily adversarial, with Saudi Arabia seeking to eliminate Houthi influence and restore its allied government. Despite several peace talks, the conflict remains entrenched, with both sides continuing to engage in military actions. The complex relationship exemplifies the broader Sunni-Shia rivalry in the region.

Geopolitical strategy

Yemen and Iran’s broader regional strategy

Yemen is integral to Iran’s overarching geopolitical strategy, serving as a pivotal element in its endeavour to extend influence throughout the Middle East. Located at the southern extremity of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen offers a strategic position overlooking vital shipping routes, such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. By aligning with the Houthi movement, Iran asserts its presence in the Arabian Peninsula and disrupts the regional balance of power, particularly in relation to Saudi Arabia. Yemen functions as a buffer zone, enabling Iran to amplify its influence without engaging in direct conflict with its principal regional adversary, Saudi Arabia.

The Iranian strategy in Yemen is motivated by its aim to create an “Axis of Resistance” comprising entities that oppose U.S. dominance and Israeli influence in the region. This network, extending from Lebanon to Iraq and Syria, designates Yemen as an additional front in Iran’s extensive conflict with American allies in the Gulf. The Houthis in Yemen provide Iran with a means to exert asymmetric power, circumventing direct military engagement while simultaneously opposing Saudi and Western interests.

Moreover, Iran perceives Yemen as a strategic religious destination. By backing the Houthis, Tehran aims to disrupt the conventional Sunni-Shia dichotomy, bolstering a Shiite-majority faction within the Sunni-dominated Arabian Peninsula. The Yemeni conflict aligns with Iran’s strategic objective of redefining the regional order and enhancing its soft power in the Middle East via proxies and asymmetrical warfare. The Houthis offer Iran a method to challenge the Saudi-led regime while avoiding the dangers of large-scale conflict.

Houthis’ parallels with regional powers.

Common ideological and strategic objectives characterise the connection between the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both factions emerged as resistance movements within their respective nations, primarily motivated by domestic grievances and a determination to oppose foreign interference. Hezbollah originated in Lebanon during the 1980s, chiefly as a reaction to Israeli occupation, whereas the Houthis initiated their movement in response to marginalization in Yemen. Both groups gradually transformed into formidable military and political forces. Their ascent has been marked by the utilization of asymmetric warfare strategies, confronting more powerful regional entities through guerrilla tactics and missile assaults. Their capacity to employ unconventional strategies against state militaries has elicited comparisons between the two, especially regarding their operations against Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen.

The ideological congruence between the Houthis and Hezbollah has fostered a symbiotic relationship. Hezbollah has consistently articulated its support for the Houthis, with its leader, Hassan Nasrallah who was assassinated on the 27th of september 2024 in Beirut, demonstrating solidarity on multiple occasions. In a 2018 address, Nasrallah asserted, “Arabs must unite to confront Israel, not Yemen,” condemning the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen and advocating for Arab nations to prioritize opposition to Israel. Nasrallah articulated his desire to combat alongside the Houthis, underscoring the strategic and ideological connections between the two factions. This support encompasses both political and military dimensions, with Hezbollah offering tactical expertise, particularly in missile technology and asymmetric warfare, thereby assisting the Houthis by bolstering their resistance against external threats.

In addition to Hezbollah, the Houthis possess allies amongst the Iraqi and Syrian factions. These factions, similar to the Houthis, have been integral to the overarching regional dynamics influenced by the conflict due to the diversity in the Middle East. In Iraq, the Houthis have established connections with several local factions that share their Shia-oriented ideology. The Iraqi factions have imparted knowledge and expertise to the Houthis regarding guerrilla tactics, artillery deployment, and strategic development. In Syria, the Houthis have allied with the Assad regime, which confronts its regional adversaries. Syria’s backing of the Houthis is both strategic and ideological, as both entities oppose foreign intervention and exhibit a shared resistance to Western influence in the region. These alliances bolster the Houthis’ regional network, thereby consolidating their stance in the protracted conflict in Yemen and enhancing their connections to other significant actors in the Middle Eastern power struggle.

Houthis-Iran beyond Saudi Arabia

Houthis-Iran relationships and the GCC

The Iran-Houthi alliance has significantly influenced Gulf nations, particularly the UAE, Oman, and Qatar, leading to modifications in their regional strategies. The UAE, initially a prominent participant in the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, became progressively apprehensive regarding Iran’s expanding influence through the Houthis, particularly following Houthi assaults on Emirati interests. Consequently, the UAE adjusted its policy by reducing military engagement in Yemen and pursuing diplomatic strategies to safeguard its interests, notably by collaborating with local Yemeni factions and Iran. Oman, upholding its customary neutrality, has established itself as a mediator, equilibrating relations with both Iran and the Houthis while concurrently protecting its strategic interests. Qatar has occasionally sought more autonomous diplomatic relations with Iran, particularly as regional rivalries among the Gulf states intensified. The Iran-Houthi alliance has complicated Gulf unity, resulting in a more varied spectrum of policies and alliances.

The global superpowers’ response

              The United States, a significant actor in the Middle East, has traditionally been a staunch ally of Saudi Arabia, endorsing its initiatives to mitigate Iran’s regional influence, especially in Yemen. Previous administrations prioritized enhancing Saudi Arabia’s regional standing via military assistance and strategic alliances. The Biden administration has indicated a policy shift, adopting a more cautious stance toward the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, which includes diminishing military support and prioritising diplomatic resolutions. This transition affects Iran’s strategic alternatives, potentially enabling Tehran to bolster its relationships with the Houthis, thereby enhancing its influence in Yemen. The evolving position of the U.S. may also promote enhanced international involvement in conflict resolution, emphasizing diplomacy.

Concurrently, Russia and China are intensifying their engagement in the region, fortifying their alliances with Iran. Russia’s increasing involvement in Syria and its backing of Iranian-supported factions, coupled with China’s burgeoning economic clout via initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, are altering the regional power dynamics. Their participation may alter the course of the Yemen conflict, as Russia and China might provide alternative diplomatic and economic assistance to Iran and the Houthis, fostering a more multipolar geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. This changing dynamic complicates U.S. influence and presents new challenges for the region’s stability.

Global trade and security

              Yemen’s location near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial maritime chokepoint, has rendered it pivotal to international trade and security issues. Iran’s backing of the Houthis has intensified security threats in the region, with missile and drone assaults aimed at international shipping, thereby disrupting essential trade routes. This has resulted in increased shipping expenses, delays, and possible economic instability, especially in the transport of oil and commodities. The humanitarian crisis in Yemen, exacerbated by the persistent conflict, has garnered considerable international attention. The United Nations and various organizations have increased their involvement in delivering assistance and mediating the conflict, as the war has resulted in extensive famine and displacement. Iran’s influence on the Houthis has had  a multifaceted impact: it has posed challenges to global trade while simultaneously highlighting the significance of international humanitarian efforts and the necessity for ongoing peace initiatives.

Implications and Future Scenarios

Potential outcomes

The Iran-Houthi alliance in Yemen is expected to persist in its evolution in the forthcoming years, with various potential outcomes influencing the conflict’s future. Provided that external assistance continues to enter the region, the Houthis will maintain their influence over the Yemeni government and Saudi-led coalition forces, potentially exacerbating the proxy dynamics of the conflict. Nevertheless, due to escalating international pressure, especially from the United Nations and significant global powers, there may be prospects for a tenuous ceasefire or a negotiated resolution. The evolving geopolitics, shaped by alterations in U.S. policy and the increasing involvement of China and Russia, may result in novel diplomatic frameworks, potentially marginalizing conventional regional powers such as Saudi Arabia. Conversely, the humanitarian crisis and its extensive repercussions may lead to increased international intervention. In a worst-case scenario, extended instability in Yemen could incite broader regional conflicts, exacerbating existing tensions and deepening the divisions within Yemen.

The recent Saudi-Iranian rapprochement

A prospective Saudi-Iranian rapprochement may profoundly influence the Iran-Houthi alliance, potentially resulting in enhanced stability in Yemen. If Saudi Arabia and Iran were to mitigate tensions and initiate diplomatic discussions, it could facilitate a transformation in the regional power dynamics. A thaw in relations would likely motivate both countries to reevaluate their positions in Yemen, with Iran possibly tempering its support for the Houthis to promote a wider regional détente. This transition may diminish the intensity of the proxy conflict, as both Iran and Saudi Arabia would possess a vested interest in regional stabilization. This may facilitate political negotiations between the Houthis and the Yemeni government, transcending their dependence on Iranian weaponry and assistance. As both powers synchronize their interests for regional tranquillity, Yemen’s humanitarian crisis may be alleviated, fostering conditions for a sustainable ceasefire and a possible political resolution to the conflict.

In summary, the Iran-Houthi alliance has emerged as a formidable influence on the geopolitical dynamics of the Arabian Peninsula. Iran’s support for the Houthis, despite frequent denials, has furnished the group with essential resources, empowering them to confront the Yemeni government and Saudi-supported forces. This alliance, grounded in ideological and strategic motivations, has significant implications not only for Yemen but also for the broader Middle East. The Saudi-Iranian rivalry manifested through this proxy conflict has intensified regional instability, resulting in a humanitarian crisis with worldwide ramifications. Nevertheless, there exists optimism for transformation. A possible Saudi-Iranian rapprochement may facilitate diplomatic resolutions, fostering stability in Yemen and alleviating regional tensions. Should both powers acknowledge their shared interests in promoting peace, the Houthis may be motivated to engage in authentic negotiations with the Yemeni government, moving beyond their dependence on external assistance. The future of Yemen hinges not only on the actions of the Houthis and the Yemeni government but also on the readiness of regional and global powers to favour dialogue over conflict. A diplomatic strategy, albeit challenging, presents the most effective route to terminating the violence and achieving enduring peace in Yemen and the broader region.