By Jonathan Cole, St Anne’s College

On January 2nd 2023, an Israeli drone strike in Dahieh, a southern suburb of Beirut with a strong Hezbollah presence, targeted and killed Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-‘Arouri. While the Lebanese government lodged a complaint with the United Nations Security Council (UNSC),  Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah gave a pair of speeches, one on January 3rd and one on January 5th. Despite the more combative rhetoric, his words did not reveal a heightened desire on the part of the Shi‘i group to ignite an all out war with Israel in comparison to the speech he delivered in November. This comes despite the location of the Israeli drone strike marking an escalation from Tel Aviv; as of yet violence has been limited to areas around the border whereas the killing of al-‘Arouri marks the first attack on the Lebanese capital by Israel since their full-scale ground invasion of the south of the country in the 2006 war.

On the other hand, Nasrallah’s speech contained three key takeaways that are likely to resonate with his constituents and listeners across the region.

The first: International laws and resolutions are not taken seriously. Indeed, Israel has never paid heed to UNSC resolutions and the United States has used its veto power to block any move to stop the ongoing bloodshed in Gaza since the war began more than three months ago. The international community’s inability and Washington’s unwillingness to intervene in the conflict despite Israeli politicians openly calling for ethnic cleansing and genocide means that the international institutions are steadily losing credibility in the region and across the Global South. In the face of this, even the most ardent supporters of the so-called rules-based international order for conflict resolution through the international system might begin to lose faith. On the Lebanese stage, the narrative plays in Hezbollah’s favour. UNSC Resolution 1701, agreed upon in 2006, demands that Hezbollah must re-deploy its troops away from the Israeli border. Were the armed group to comply, Hezbollah’s domestic position would likely weaken, especially in the face of their political opponents’ long running calls for the Shi ‘i group to disarm.

The second: Might is right. To the Axis of Resistance –  the alliance composed of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Assad Regime, Hezbollah, and until the Syrian uprising, Hamas – Nasrallah communicates that as the adage goes, might is right. He suggests that Israel takes Hezbollah into account in its planning exactly because of the threat it poses. Hezbollah is amongst the most capable non-state military forces in the world with long range missiles on Israel’s northern border and often touted as more powerful in Lebanon than the national army itself. On the other hand, Israel treats other Arab states, those that have normalised relations with Tel Aviv or pose no military threat, with contempt.

The third: Hezbollah will fight, no-holds-barred, but only if Israel chooses war. This particular message does not differ significantly from the November 3rd 2023 speech in which Nasrallah indicated that, while prepared to fight, Hezbollah has no intention to start a war. In the speech on January 3rd, Nasrallah underscored that Hezbollah’s strength acts as a deterrent. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime in Tehran has also signalled since the earliest days of the war that it too has no desire for all-out war. While the location of the Israeli attack that killed al-‘Arouri may indeed have marked an escalation of hostilities, the targeted killing of other high-profile cadres from amongst Hezbollah and Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ranks, Abbas Raad on November 22nd and Radhi Mousavi on December 25th respectively, did not see the conflict escalate significantly, notes Maha Yayah of the Carnegie Middle East Centre. 

Amongst a broad section of the Lebanese population and political class, there is no appetite for an all-out war with Israel. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, while calling the January 2nd attack “a new Israeli crime,” has indicated in the early days of the war that he was working to keep the country out of a wider conflict. A four-year grinding economic crisis has left the country’s economy in tatters and over eight per cent of the population in multidimensional poverty, according to the UN.

On the other hand, with Netanyahu with his back against the wall politically, the Israeli Prime Minister may seek to mitigate internal pressure by undertaking military operations elsewhere. On January 8th, the PM said that Israel will do “whatever it takes” to restore security to the north, with the Israeli Foreign Minister telling the foreign press that “We are fighting an axis, not a single enemy.” The same day, another senior Hezbollah commander was killed by a suspected Israeli drone strike in the south of the country following rocket barrages launched by Hezbollah in response to the killing of al-‘Arouri. 

The January 3rd speech can be viewed here, and the January 5th speech, here.