By Jocelyn Chau, St Antony’s College, Oxford 

On October 7, Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an unprecedented assault on Israel, where more than 1,200 were killed and 200 were taken hostage. Israel responded with a series of airstrikes targeting hospitals, refugee camps, and UNRWA facilities, resulting in the deaths of over 15,000 Palestinians. As the Israel-Hamas war continues and the death toll rises, the international community has been deeply divided, with debates arising over the proportionality of Israel’s response and the legitimacy of Hamas’s actions. Some countries called for an immediate ceasefire to minimise casualties in Gaza, while others expressed support for Israel’s “right of self-defence” against Hamas. Two of the world’s great powers, the United States and China, have responded differently to the war due to their complex strategic interests in the region. 

Earlier this month, the US House of Representatives passed a Republican plan to allocate $14.3 billion in military aid to provide air and missile defence support for Israel in its war with Hamas, the Palestinian militant group in power in Gaza. According to Time, the US has provided Israel with over $130 billion in security assistance since its founding in 1948, with an annual average of approximately $3.8 billion, making Israel the largest recipient of US aid worldwide.

The United States’ unwavering backing of Israel has led many to question the implications of China’s growing diplomatic standing as a peace mediator in the region, particularly following China’s facilitation of a peace agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March this year. Many have criticised China for its neutral stance on the Israel-Hamas war, as it has made vague statements positioning itself as “a common friend of both Israel and Palestine” that claim to acknowledge the security concerns and legitimate rights of both sides while generally condemning all actions that violate international law. 

Given China’s successful mediation of the Saudi-Iran normalisation agreement, there is anticipation that China could play a larger role in brokering peace in the Israel-Hamas war. However, China faces challenges due to its complex relations with different parties in the region and the limitations set by  its commitment to a non-interference principle, a crucial tenet of China’s foreign policy since 1955. The non-interference policy is one of the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-Existence put forward by Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai in 1955. Since then, it has guided China’s foreign policy and relations with other countries, along with the principles of mutual reciprocity and respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and non-interference in one another’s internal affairs. This policy has remained a cornerstone of China’s approach to foreign affairs in order to foster peaceful coexistence, enhance cooperation, and prevent conflicts.

Ties with the region 

China has a long history of support for Palestine’s aspirations of nationhood. During Mao Zedong’s era in the 1960s, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) established a diplomatic office in China, which later became an embassy in 1974. During that time, China was a significant supplier of weapons to the PLO, as it viewed the Palestinian struggle for land and liberation as part of the broader national liberation movement in the Global South. Since then, China has remained a steadfast supporter of Palestine and its right to nationhood.

In the past decade, China has also formed strong diplomatic ties and strategic partnerships with countries in the Middle East, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Gulf Arab states, particularly through President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative launched in 2013. China is currently the largest oil importer from both Saudi Arabia and Iran, the latter a longtime ally of Hamas. By December 2022, China’s trade volume with the Middle East had surpassed $507 billion, more than double the volume of US trade with the region. These strategic and rapidly expanding partnerships in technology, infrastructure, and security have been well-received in the region, establishing China as the region’s largest trading partner and strengthening its diplomatic influence. China’s success in brokering an agreement between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran earlier this year was seen as a significant diplomatic breakthrough.

It is worth noting, however, that China’s relationship with Israel has also grown closer in recent decades since their establishment of full diplomatic relations in 1992. Despite China’s historical support for Palestine and Israel’s longstanding alliance with the US, the two countries agreed on an “innovative comprehensive partnership” in March 2017, focusing on increased cooperation in technology, clean energy, medical care, and agriculture. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu referred to this growing partnership as a “marriage made in heaven” and expressed support for China’s expanding role in the Middle East. China is currently Israel’s second-largest trading partner after the US. From 1995 to 2021, China’s exports to Israel experienced significant growth, increasing from $192 million to $13.2 billion at an annualised rate of 17.7%. 

Stance on the Israel-Gaza War 

Since the outbreak of violent attacks between Israel and Hamas in early October, the world has been closely observing China’s responses and its potential to promote peace in the region. China has, on multiple occasions, reiterated the importance of the two-state solution and called on relevant parties to exercise restraint. However, criticism from political observers has been directed at Beijing’s approach of “balanced diplomacy“, which has resulted in its ineffectiveness in influencing events in the Israel-Gaza war. China’s  approach is characterised by its official stance of neutrality and ambiguous statements such as “what we hope to see is the two countries living together in peace and enjoying security and growth together”. China’s intricate relationships with different parties in the region, coupled with its commitment to the non-interference policy, have considerably limited its ability to act as a peace mediator and emerge as an alternative to the US-dominated order in the Israel-Gaza war. 

While China’s approach may appear neutral and cautious, there has been a subtle shift in its rhetoric as it openly criticised the US and Israel in official statements and on international platforms. Unlike many Western media narratives, China refrained from labelling Hamas as a “terrorist organisation” and instead referred to it as a “resistance organization“, often avoiding condemnation of Hamas’s acts of violence against Israeli civilians. In response to China’s lack of solidarity, Israel expressed “deep disappointment” over China’s failure to condemn Hamas’s violent attacks, including the abduction of innocent civilians on October 7, as well as China’s refusal to voice support for Israel’s right to self-defence. Beijing’s stance was particularly disheartening for Israel, considering China’s status as one of its major trade partners in the Middle East. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, in a recent call with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan, went so far as to say that Israel had crossed a line: “Israel’s actions have gone beyond the scope of self-defence and it should earnestly listen to the calls of the international community and the United Nations Secretary-General and stop imposing collective punishment on the people of Gaza”.

Similarly, an editorial article published in China’s state-run newspaper China Daily stated that the US was on the “wrong side of history in Gaza” by blindly backing Israel’s bombardment with unconditional material and military aid, thereby “adding fuel to the fire”. The editorial also condemned the US for vetoing a UN Security Council resolution on October 18 that aimed to secure a “humanitarian pause” to deliver lifesaving aid to millions of civilians in Gaza: “It [the US] should fulfil its global responsibility as the world’s sole superpower by helping avoid a bigger humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip. But will the self-proclaimed “champion” of democracy, freedom and human rights do so?”. US Ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, explained her country’s veto during the Council session, stating that the resolution failed to mention Israel’s right of self-defence.

Upon closer examination, China’s ostensibly neutral stance appears to lean towards supporting the Palestinian cause. In a statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Zhai Jun, China’s special envoy to the Middle East, said the root cause for the ongoing Palestine-Israel conflict is the denial of “the Palestinian people’s lawful national rights”. Similarly, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang told the chief advisor of the Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva that genuine peace hinges on the realisation of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian nation, noting that the unresolved injustices faced by the Palestinians is the root cause of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. China’s statements, therefore, clearly diverge from the narratives and perspectives favoured by the US and Israel.

Representative voice of the Arab World 

During a UN Security Council briefing on October 24, China’s UN Ambassador Zhang Jun emphasised the importance of a two-state solution and peaceful coexistence between Palestine and Israel. He also urged the United States to heed the global call for a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities: “This is the call made by Secretary-General Guterres. This is the call made by the leaders of Arab countries at the Cairo Summit on October 21. This is the call made by the WHO, WFP, and UNRWA, as well as humanitarian agencies that are carrying out relief work in Gaza. This is also the call made by millions of ordinary people in Gaza and around the world.” The strategic alignment evident in Zhang’s remarks allows China to strengthen its diplomatic ties with Arab and Islamic countries, enhance its influence, position itself favourably on the international stage, and reaffirm its commitment to upholding international norms while representing the interests of the Arab and Islamic world. China’s support for the Palestinians has been seen as a strategic approach to advance its domestic and diplomatic goals, aiming to gain recognition and strengthen its position among the Arab world, the Global South, and its domestic Muslim population.

On November 1, China took over the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council and vowed to prioritise the situation in Palestine and Israel. Ambassador Zhang Jun stated that advocating for a ceasefire and preventing further civilian casualties would be at the top of the Security Council’s agenda, as the death toll on both sides had surpassed 10,000 since October 7, with nearly 9,000 of those deaths in Gaza alone by that date.

China’s involvement in the Israel-Hamas war has triggered discussions about a potential shift in power dynamics in the Middle East. Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said that Egypt and other Arab countries highly appreciate China for upholding a “consistent and just position” on the question of Palestine, expressing expectations for China to assume a more prominent role in resolving the ongoing crisis. China’s positive relations with several Arab countries and its role in mediating peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia further contribute to its diplomatic standing in the region. Some observers have also noted that the war in Gaza could potentially benefit China in its rivalry with the US, a long-standing major power broker in the region, with China leveraging its growing influence and garnering support from Arab nations while potentially challenging the influence of the US in the region as Israel’s strongest ally. 

Given China’s preference to maintain its role as a neutral peace broker in international conflicts as it has done in the past, and considering its diverse economic interests in the region, it is unlikely that China will take a stronger stance or become deeply entangled in the Israel-Gaza war in order to avoid strains in its relationships with different strategic partners. Instead, China is expected to utilise its influence and leverage its position as a Permanent Member and Rotating President of the UN Security Council to promote peace negotiations, emphasise the importance of adhering to international law, and facilitate dialogue among all parties involved, especially its Arab and Islamic partners.