By R. Clarke Cooper, Sebastian Valdivieso, Moss Makhoulian, Julius Patta, and Lujaen Basri

As the United Nations Climate Change Conference – COP28 convenes, climate change conditions are reshaping the global landscape, with impacts likely intensifying in the coming decades. The most critical aspect of climate change is water scarcity, which poses a substantial existential concern directly associated with the sovereignty and prosperity of states. The ability for a population to exist, in ancient times as well as modern-day, is predicated on access to water resources. According to the 2023 World Economic Forum and 2021 United Nations reporting, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the one region that experiences the highest levels of water scarcity. This critical situation is a complex and enduring challenge requiring state-supported actions from hydro-diplomacy among states to adaptive public and private partnerships. 

Water scarcity is a shared critical issue in the MENA, characterised by its arid climate and dependency on agriculture. The region, already grappling with limited water resources, will likely face heightened social unrest due to this scarcity. The reliance on water for agriculture and daily life means its shortage can provoke competition and conflict among communities, exacerbating existing ethnic and socio-political tensions. If sustained long enough, as noted by United Nations agencies in 2021, water scarcity is likely to cause public health issues, as well as migration pressures both within and across national borders, which will impact social stability further. In areas where water sources, such as the Jordan, Nile, Tigris, and Euphrates rivers, cross national frontiers, reduced water flows due to climate change could intensify disputes over water rights and will likely require the evolving practice of hydro-diplomacy; a practice where states balance interests related to their sovereignty whilst strengthening regional cooperation with countries sharing common water resources. 

Factoring economic impact and developmental challenges, water scarcity in the MENA region could severely impact economic activity and cause economic costs equivalent to up to fourteen percent of the region’s GDP by 2050, according to the World Bank. Agricultural, industrial, and energy sectors would be the most directly affected, and the reduced agricultural output due to water shortages could lead to increased food prices and food insecurity across the globe. The need for water for industrial processes and energy production also means that water scarcity can hinder economic development and diversification efforts, which is crucial for many MENA economies seeking to moderate their dependency on oil.

The world leaders convening in the United Arab Emirates for COP28 are uniquely positioned to take stock of stakeholders’ interests in climate adaption. They also can proactively advocate necessary climate adaption measures, such as the following five MENA centric and globally beneficial water resource recommendations. 

1.Make water a national security priority. Climate change-induced water scarcity in the MENA region presents a complex challenge. Beyond being a significant environmental issue, it is also becoming a profound national security concern. From a social, political, and economic standpoint, it can destabilise the region further, change regional geopolitics, and even trigger conflicts, making it imperative for governments and international organisations to prioritise and address this challenge as part of their security agenda. The multifaceted nature of this issue requires an integrated approach combining domestic policy reforms, technological innovation, regional cooperation, and international diplomacy to navigate the challenges ahead effectively.

From a trans-regional perspective, climate-induced water scarcity in the MENA region could have broader implications for international relations. As water scarcity becomes more acute, it could reshape alliances and rivalries within the region and with external powers. In this scenario, nations with better water management or technology may gain influence. At the same time, those struggling with scarcity are likely to face social, political, and economic instability or crises, which may lead them to seek new alliances for support, thereby altering the traditional geopolitical landscape.

2.Mitigate risks of water scarcity during times of conflict. Acknowledging the national security imperatives of water access and mitigating water scarcity risks in volatile regions such as the MENA must be front and centre and would require a combination of short- and long-term strategies. Ideally, all efforts must be made to try to avoid any conflict that would contribute to the scarcity of water, and simultaneously, grander efforts must be made to address both the immediate challenges posed in the event of conflict by finding solutions for underlying issues contributing and exacerbating both the scarcity of water and the conflict.

As Professor Mohammed T. Salameh assessed, to avoid any conflict that would originate from shared resources like water, the tools of diplomacy, geopolitics, mediation by independent third parties, and sustainability will play a crucial role in mitigating water scarcity in the MENA region and globally. 

Mitigating water scarcity during any conflict could be more complex, and the need for mitigation could be weaponized. There is precedent for short-term measures such as humanitarian aid and access to water delivered through safe channels and local NGOs. However, conflict resolution in finding peaceful solutions through diplomatic channels will certainly promote stability while ensuring existing water structures remain protected, are not damaged during any conflict, and are safely guarded by all sides and stakeholders becomes the goal. Additionally, by establishing water storage systems to act as buffers during unexpected or accidental disruptions, distribution of portable water storage containers could be entertained.

Additional diplomatic work with local stakeholders will also be needed in affected regions where outdated water governance laws or frameworks must be revised and new ones devised to accommodate current realities due to a conflict or climate change impacts. 

3.Bolster scientific innovation for sustainable development in line with the UN Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development. The United Nations General Assembly has proclaimed 2024 to 2033 as the “International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development (IDSSD).” Addressing the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) is a global remit, and its underlying subject matter scope is vast. In their report, “Unleashing Science”, the International Science Council has outlined a roadmap for science and research, a one-goal vision with Five Sustainability Science Missions. The missions address Food, Water, Health, Urban Areas, and Climate and Energy. The report argues for a step change in science and science funding by delivering these specific missions for science specific to these five critical areas.

In 2022, the United Nations reported 2.2 billion people lacked access to drinking water, 703 million were without basic water service, and 3.5 billion people live without safely managed sanitation. Not all regions are equal. Economy, society, geography, and climate dictate nuanced conditions. The MENA is of salient interest, as droughts and arid desert conditions are exacerbating water scarcity. While focus elsewhere may appropriately shift further into water conservation and reuse, the priority challenge in the MENA is typically that of water sourcing and reclamation. Applying innovation to a singular goal-oriented and solution focus is but one of many ingredients of mission-oriented science: science conducted for a limited time until a substantial challenge has yielded success. We agree that addressing the mission, “Water: replenishing nature’s reservoirs to provide enough clean water for all,” is where focus on innovation in the development of solutions can be applied toward sourcing water in the MENA.

4.Link water and climate commitments in climate finance. There is an urgent need for increased and strategic climate finance, especially directed toward adaptation measures in the most vulnerable countries and sectors within the MENA region. There are some innovative financing methods tackling development challenges in the region. The Arab Forum for Environment & Development (AFEB), for example, reports Results-Based Finance (RBF), Performance-Based Contracting, Impact Investment, and Debt-for-Development Swaps as practical approaches toward aiding accountability and sustainability. These methods have illustrated their potential to address developmental issues effectively and encourage sustainable growth, and they also complement traditional funding for more sustainable development. 

The vulnerability of the MENA region to climate change emphasises that international climate finance is crucial to aid these nations in adapting to climate change and mitigating further warming. The financial needs for climate action in the region are estimated to be around $570 billion until 2030. However, it is noted that only a tiny portion of this need has been fulfilled, with some countries receiving just eleven percent of the required climate finance over the past decade. It is also worth highlighting that there are funding disparities among the nations and the dominance of energy and transport sectors over critical areas like water and agriculture. 

5.Incentivize public-private partnerships for water resource management. It is incumbent upon the private sector to play an active role in identifying and fostering solutions to global water scarcity. Central governments worldwide, and particularly in the MENA, are challenged by growing populations and economies with increasing water consumption requirements to support growth. Development and implementation of Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) can meet the population and economic requirements by allowing central governments to pursue extensive infrastructure and utilities without being utterly dependent on government funds. For the private sector, viable PPP projects will engender private investment and enable key performance indicators (KPI) to be met. 

The 2030 Water Resource Group (2030 WRG), for example, is a PPP hosted by the World Bank, and this PPP supports country-level collaboration designed to enable the unification of communities via shared interests in the sustainable management of water. To date, there are over 1,000 WRG partnership projects worldwide to help drive institutional change and advance innovative leadership in water resource management. 

Unfortunately, for the fourteen in the MENA region, the general concept of PPPs still lacks substantial legal and institutional capacity of support. And without enumerating specific central governments, PPPs have suffered from becoming a reality primarily due to a lack of political will. Per Middle East Economic Digest (MEED) investment reporting, there remains no sense of interest or urgency to transfer or share state infrastructure with private investors or developers. Still, there is growing evidence of PPPs becoming a reality across the MENA in the past five years, such as school projects in Saudi Arabia, healthcare infrastructure in Kuwait, and utility infrastructure in Qatar. Abu Dhabi, the capital of COP28 host the United Arab Emirates, announced a PPP in 2020 to finance and operate municipal and transportation assets. 

Acknowledging the growing needs for water access and consumption, COP28 provides a timely, and this year, an obviously apropos locale to advocate for states and stakeholders to collaborate on water scarcity, work toward a shared understanding on mitigating risk with hydro-diplomacy and set up the legal and institutional frameworks necessary to finance water infrastructure projects and bolster implementation of PPPs. 

The blog authors are all University of Oxford MBA candidates with extensive public and private sector experience:  R. Clarke Cooper, St. Hugh’s | Sebastian Valdivieso, Oriel | Moss Makhoulian, Oriel | Julius Patta, St. Hugh’s | Lujaen Basri, St. Hugh’s